The Greater Horn of Africa faces an increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions during October–December, according to the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre.

Its regional outlook indicated a 90% chance of enhanced rainfall over southern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia and northeastern Kenya.

The forecast also identified a high chance of seasonal rainfall exceeding 400 mm in parts of central to southern Somalia, central Kenya, the Lake Victoria Basin, Burundi, western Rwanda and western Tanzania.

ICPAC said the seasonal guidance should be used alongside weekly and monthly forecasts and national meteorological updates.

The outlook provides a regional planning signal. It does not establish when individual storms will occur or confirm that flooding will develop in every area expecting above-normal rainfall.