The World Meteorological Organization’s latest seasonal update forecasts further strengthening of El Niño during November 2026–January 2027.

Its multi-model ensemble projects an average Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly of approximately +3.8°C over that period, with warming expected to peak around December 2026.

The figure describes temperatures in a specific tropical Pacific monitoring region relative to its average. It is not a forecast increase in global average air temperature.

The update also projects a weakening positive Indian Ocean Dipole, with a seasonal mean anomaly of +0.3°C.

Sea-surface temperatures in the North and South Tropical Atlantic are forecast to remain above normal.

These large-scale ocean signals inform seasonal temperature and rainfall outlooks; they do not specify the timing or location of individual storms.