The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warned that strengthening El Niño conditions could increase flood risks during Somalia’s October–December Deyr rainy season.

The seasonal outlook assigned a 90 percent probability of above-normal rainfall to its strongest forecast zone, covering large parts of central and southern Somalia. Near-normal and below-normal rainfall each carried a 5 percent probability in that zone.

FAO highlighted the Juba and Shabelle river catchments as areas requiring attention.

The organisation urged early preparedness and anticipatory action. It also cautioned that comparisons with previous severe flood years illustrated possible impacts rather than predicting an identical disaster.

The probabilities describe seasonal rainfall categories. They do not mean that every location has a 90 percent chance of flooding.